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水產研究(1993年創刊)

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  • 點閱: 881
  • 日期: 2019-05-22
水產研究(1993年創刊)-以廣義線性模式分析臺灣北部海域劍尖槍魷資源變化趨勢
主題: 以廣義線性模式分析臺灣北部海域劍尖槍魷資源變化趨勢
摘要(中):
劍尖槍魷 (Swordtip squid, Uroteuthis edulis) 為臺灣燈火漁業的重要漁獲物種之一。由於頭足類資源多受環境影響而呈現年間波動,因此易受過度捕撈的影響,導致資源的崩潰,凸顯資源評估之重要。本研究以標準化後之單位努力漁獲量 (catch per unit effort, CPUE) 為資源指標,與前一年CPUE、月別北極震盪指數、月別海洋Niño指數及海面水溫 (sea surface temperature, SST)、海面葉綠素甲濃度 (sea surface chlorophyll-a, SSC) 等環境因子進行相關分析及廣義線性模式 (generalized linear model, GLM) 套適,以建立劍尖槍魷資源評估模式及預測資源變化趨勢。本研究結果顯示,劍尖槍魷前一年資源指標與來年之資源指標無顯著相關。在環境因子中,臺灣北部海域湧升流區 (主要產卵場) 在春季繁殖期 (3月) 的SST與劍尖槍魷資源指標有正相關,而湧升流區在春季繁殖期結束後 (5月) 及東海陸棚 (索餌場) 在成長期 (4月) 之SST與劍尖槍魷資源指標為負相關。SSC與劍尖槍魷資源指標為負相關。經Akaike Information Criterion選擇之廣義線性模式將湧升流區3月與東海陸棚區4月SST納入模式,解釋率為89.3%。以本研究建立之GLM模式,進行2016年資源指標預測模擬,結果顯示2016年資源指標為下降趨勢,與實際觀測之趨勢相同。
出版日期: 2018/6/30
標題title(英): Analyzing the Abundance Trend of Uroteuthis edulis in Northern Taiwan Waters Using a Generalized Linear Model
作者: 張可揚‧王凱毅‧廖正信
卷別: 26
期別: 1
頁碼: 1-12
作者 auther(英): Ke-Yang Chang, Kae-Yih Wang and Cheng-Hsin Liao
摘要abstract(英): Uroteuthis edulis is one of the main catch species of the torch light fishery in Taiwan. Because cephalopod resources are heavily affected by the environment and fluctuate annually, the population in the fishery has become vulnerable to collapse resulting from overfishing, a possibility that highlights the importance of resource assessment. In this study, the catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used as the resource index to correlate with the environmental factors, including the previous year CPUE, the monthly Arctic Oscillation Index, the monthly Oceanic Niño Index, the temporal-spatial sea surface temperature (SST) and the sea surface chlorophyll-a (SSC), and a generalized linear model (GLM) was used to establish the U. edulis resource assessment model to predict the abundance trend of the resource. This study showed that there was no significant correlation between the resources in the previous year and the resources in the coming year. Among all environmental factors, the SST in the upwelling in the northern Taiwan waters (the main breeding ground) during the spring breeding season (in March of the fishing year) was positively correlated with the squid population abundance. The SST after the end of the spring breeding season (in May of the fishing year) and the SST in the East China Sea continental shelf (the feeding ground) during growing (in April of the fishing year) were negatively correlated with the squid population abundance. The SSC was negatively correlated with the squid population abundance. The generalized linear model selected by Akaike Information Criterion included the SST in upwelling in April and the SST in the East China Sea continental shelf in April into the model and their explanatory rate was 89.3%. Based on the GLM established in this study, the resource forecasting showed that the resource indicator exhibited a downward trend in 2016, which was consistent with what was actually observed.
使用語言: 中文
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