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以泛線性模式進行臺灣西南海域正櫻蝦資源趨勢評估

  • 出版日期:109-12-30
  • 標題title(英):
    Resource Trend Assessment of Sergestid Shrimp (Sergia lucens) in Southwestern Waters off Taiwan by Generalized Linear Model
  • 作者:戴靖萱‧翁進興‧黃建智‧張可揚
  • 作者auther(英):Ching-Hsuan Tai, Jign-Shing Weng, Jian-Zhi Huang and Ke-Yang Chang
  • 卷別:28
  • 期別:2
  • 頁碼:1-11

正櫻蝦 (Sergia lucens) 為臺灣西南海域重要漁獲物種,生命週期短,其豐度容易受到環境變動的影響。本研究彙整分析2005–2019年臺灣西南海域13艘正櫻蝦漁業樣本船作業日誌資料,包含年份、月份、作業漁區、作業時間及漁獲量,以單位努力漁獲量 (catch per unit effort, CPUE)為資源量指標,利用泛線性模式 (generalized linear model, GLM) 建立正櫻蝦CPUE變動模式,以探討正櫻蝦資源量變動與環境因子的關係,找出影響資源量波動之環境因子。為配合資料時間序列不同,因此本研究僅使用2013年11月至2018年5月的資料進行模式建立。結果顯示海表水溫以及高雄地區風速風向交感效應對於正櫻蝦CPUE具顯著影響 (p < 0.001),模式解釋度為12.5%。比較名目CPUE及模式估計CPUE趨勢,年別趨勢圖顯示2013–2019年模式估計CPUE與名目CPUE趨勢相同,皆呈現下降趨勢。本研究模式估計的CPUE趨勢可提供正櫻蝦漁業管理之參考。

摘要abstract(英)


The sergestid shrimp (Sergia lucens) is an important fishery species in the southwestern waters off Taiwan. It has a short life cycle and its abundance is easily affected by environmental changes. This study aggregated and analyzed the logbook data, including the year, month, fishing area, operating hour, and catch data, of 13 sergestid shrimp fishery sampling vessels that operated in the southwestern waters off Taiwan from 2005 to 2019. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used as the resource index. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to establish a CPUE variation model of the sergestid shrimp in order to explore the relationship between the changes in resources and environmental factors, and to identify the environmental factors that caused fluctuations in the resources. In order to cope with the different time series of data, this study only used data from November 2013 through May 2018 for the model establishment. The results showed that the sympathetic effects of sea surface temperatures in fishing areas and wind speed and direction in the Kaohsiung area have a significant impact on the CPUE of sergestid shrimp. The model interpretation rate was 12.5%. Comparing the CPUE and model estimates of CPUE trends, a year-by-year trend chart showed that the trends of the model CPUE and CPUE from 2013 to 2019 were the same, with both showing a downward trend. The CPUE trend estimated by this research model can serve as a reference for the management of sergestid shrimp fisheries.