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台灣東北海域表層水文時空動態之研究

  • 出版日期:92-12-31
  • 標題title(英):
    Spatial and Temporal Variation of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northeastern Taiwan
  • 作者:曾振德‧林志遠‧陳世欽
  • 作者auther(英):Chen-Te Tseng, Chi-Yuan Lin and Shih-Chin Chen
  • 卷別:11
  • 期別:1&2
  • 頁碼:19-28

本研究利用NOAA衛星遙測海面水溫影像,以定量及定性方法,統計分析1991至1998年間,台灣東北海域表層水文時空動態變化。首先利用經驗正交函數 (EOF) 定量分析月平均海面水溫影像,結果顯示該海域主要表層水文特徵 (即第一主成分影像) 以黑潮鋒面分佈型態為主,約佔總變異量的61%,其形成機制係由黑潮暖流與東海陸棚水交匯作用而形成。此外,由衛星海面水溫影像之定性觀測及統計分析,顯示台灣東北海域之黑潮鋒面及冷渦分佈,幾乎全年發生,並可歸納為以下三種主要分佈型態:第一類型為強勢之黑潮鋒面分佈型態,主要發生在每年11月至隔年3月。第二類型為冷渦分佈型態,發生於每年6至9月份。第三類型為黑潮鋒面及冷渦並存之分佈型態,主要發生在每年東北與西南季節風交換之過渡時期,通常以5、10及11月三個月份最容易發生。此外,利用海面水溫時序列資料,進行Wavelet小波分析,顯示該海域之海面水溫變化以年週期 (即12個月) 之變動為主,因此嘗試利用雙平滑模式ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12建立海面水溫時序列預測模式,作為未來海面水溫預報系統之重要參考。

摘要abstract(英)


The spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) derived from NOAA/AVHRR infrared imagery obtained between 1991 and 1998 in northeastern Taiwan was investigated. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to monthly SST data. Results indicated that the first mode of EOF analysis represented 63% of the total spatial variance. It contained the structure of the Kuroshio frontal pattern, which is the interactive phenomenon of Kuroshio water and continental shelf water of the East China Sea (ECS). In addition, the Kuroshio frontal patterns as well as cold eddies were found to exist throughout the year. They could be classified into three main types of distribution patterns. The first type is the Kuroshio frontal pattern, which is usually found in November to March of the following year. The second type, the cold eddy pattern, is commonly found during summer from June to September, while the third type exists simultaneously with both the Kuroshio frontal and cold eddy patterns, and appears in the interchange period of the northeastern-southwestern monsoon, especially in May, October, and November. Furthermore, a wavelet analysis of the SST image time series was attempted, and the results showed that the dominant period variation of the studied area is an annual cycle (i.e., 12 months). Therefore, the ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 time series was determined to completely imitate the SST forecast model which can be used to predict monthly SST data of one or more future time periods.