農業部-水產試驗所全球資訊網農業部-水產試驗所全球資訊網

        未來氣候變遷下，臺灣漁業需面對氣候長期變遷與極端氣候災害造成之複 合型災害，如極端強降雨、乾旱、海平面上升等各種衝擊，漁政單位之中央、地方 至產業經營者均已開始設法因應氣候災害造成之影響與衝擊。然而，面對未來氣候 變遷的不確定性、跨尺度影響、可能影響範圍與程度，是否超過目前漁業體系能夠 承受之範圍，亦已成為調適決策未來面臨的重大挑戰。除氣候變遷自身的不確定性 ，自然環境的變化亦難以精確預測，並需加成社會體系變化之不確定性，故決策者 調適政策制定的困難度亦隨之增加。氣候變遷下的漁業議題因具有較高之不確定性 與複雜性等特性，調適方向與個別策略的規劃，均與不同利害關係人的多重目標與 多元價值息息相關。因此，除目前中央管理單位與地方政府以傳統科學評估採集有 限數據做為證據基礎外(如危害與暴露度評估等)，需於整體規劃中納入與分析不同 利害相關者對於調適目標、科學數據的感知、判斷之影響，並納入在地知識做為互 補，提供未來風險選擇與調適選項的判斷依據。基此，本計畫主要聚焦於未來氣溫 +2°C氣候情境，嘗試以地區性為範疇，進行跨域治理的調適規劃，透過風險治理流 程納入有關風險感知的社會關注評估，以及風險接受度之判定，並於研究流程中納 入利害關係人參與式合作，縮小各方調適認知落差，增加共識達成的機會，建立整 合性風險治理模式，促使決策能更為符合社會實際需要，並強化各方投入調適行動 意願，達到公私部門協力共同面對氣候挑戰之目標。

        The uncertainty of Climate Change and the extent of impacts that Climate Change may result in, still remain to be challenging issues. In addition, what may happen to human society under extreme natural circumstances is still to be explored. These issues have made decisiondecision-making in adaption policy highly complicated and thus difficult. Due to the uncertainty and complexity of fishery under climate change, and a strong correlation between adaptation strategy and values subscribed by different stakeholders. We are suggested that both scientific evidence and stakeholders’ knowledge, value and perceptions of risks and judgment need to be considered in the decision-decisionmaking process. Apart from scientific data or estimates, this process should involve stakeholders in order to incorporate their knowledge, values, perception, and judgment and achieve agreement. that this integrated, informed, value value-sensitive risk governance model with public and private partnership can make decisions in response to societal demands.